USA: Prisons, Race, Recidivism, Innocents, Drugs & Crime
1/10/2020
compiled and written by Dudley Sharp, independent researcher, 832-439-2113, CV at bottom
1/10/2020
compiled and written by Dudley Sharp, independent researcher, 832-439-2113, CV at bottom
Can we be smarter on crime? Of course. Only time will tell if we are.
Please see rehabilitation study - quite disappointing.
CRIME RATES RISE DRAMATICALLY
Nearly, every year, from 1960 to 1992, violent crimes rose, in near straight line growth, with violent crime rising by 7 times (288,460 vs 1,932,270) and property crimes 4 times (3 million vs 12 million) . . . (1).
Both of which have well known drug components . . .
Minority communities were crying out for more police, arrest and incarceration protection (2).
Why, particularly, minority communities?
RACE, ETHNICITY & CRIME STATISTICS
While drug use is similar between white and some minority communities, violent crime is much higher in some minority communities, which dictates where police protection is most needed, wanted and provided, as detailed:
For the White–Black comparisons, the Black level is 12.7 times greater than the White level for homicide, 15.6 times greater for robbery, 6.7 times greater for rape, and 4.5 times greater for aggravated assault (3).
For the Hispanic- White comparison, the Hispanic level is 4.0 times greater than the White level for homicide, 3.8 times greater for robbery, 2.8 times greater for rape, and 2.3 times greater for aggravated assault (3).
For the Hispanic–Black comparison, the Black level is 3.1 times greater than the Hispanic level for homicide, 4.1 times greater for robbery, 2.4 times greater for rape, and 1.9 times greater for aggravated assault (3).
(NOTE: Asian Americans are not included because it is a minority with extremely low crime rates)
AS AN IRON CLAD RULE POLICE WILL ALWAYS CONCENTRATE ON THE MORE VIOLENT AREAS, AS THEY MUST AND WE WANT THEM TO - ARRESTS FOR NON VIOLENT CRIMES WILL, NECESSARILY, BE HIGHER, PER CAPITA, IN THOSE AREAS. THE OUTCOME OF POLICE PRESENCE, NOT, NECESSARILY, RACIAL BIAS.
DEATH PENALTY
White murderers are twice as likely to be executed as are black murderers and are executed at a rate 41% higher than black death row inmates (4).
PRISON BEDS INCREASED
There were 200,000 prison beds from 1960-1976, and then, by 1984 it was 400,000, about 800,000 in 1990s and then about 1.55 million by 2009, growing, directly, with the increase in crime (5)
It can take from 4-7 years, from approval, funding, planning to occupancy, for a new, major prison.
CRIMES DECREASED
Both violent and property crimes, dropped, dramatically, in near straight line reduction, with increased incarcerations, and other issues, and were down to 1,186,185 and 8,209,010, respectively, in 2014 (6).
On a per capita, crime rate basis, violent crimes were 758 in 1992, 372 in 2014 and property crimes were 4,903 in 1992 and 2,574 in 2014 - about twice as high in the 22 years prior to our highest incarceration numbers.(6).
In 2014, crime rates dropped to 40-60 year lows (6), depending upon crime category.
RECIDIVISM
-- 83% of released state prisoners were re-arrested, an average of 5 times, within nine years, with 401,288 released state prisoners re-arrested, an estimated 2 million times. (7).
Real recidivism rates are higher, as less than 25% of crimes are solved - "Fewer than half of crimes are reported and fewer than half are solved." (8)
-- 94% percent of state prisoners in 1991 had committed a violent crime or been incarcerated or on probation before. Of these prisoners, 45 percent had committed their latest crimes while free on probation or parole.
When "supervised" on the streets, they inflicted at least 218,000 violent crimes, including 13,200 murders and 11,600 rapes (more than half of the rapes against children) (9).
Just those prisoners in 1991.
-- Patrick A. Langan, senior statistician at the Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics,calculated thattripling the prison population from 1975 to 1989 may have reduced "violent crime by 10 to 15 percent below what it would have been," thereby preventing a "conservatively estimated 390,000 murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults in 1989 alone." (9).
In 1989, alone.
. . . thereby preventing a non-conservatively estimated 20 million murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults from 1976-2019, with a 750% increase in the prison population.
NOTE: The annual BJS crime vicitmization study finds that about 50% of violent crimes go unreported and the total numbers, from that study, exclude murders, which have averaged around 18,000/yr since the 1970s, or an additional 846,000 violent crimes.
REHABILITATION
INNOCENTS CONVICTED
POLICE
Four studies out this year (2016) show that if police are biased, it’s in favor of blacks.
SMART ON CRIME
" . . . Department of Justice policies since the 1980s directed federal prosecutors to charge the most serious readily provable offense, unless justice required otherwise. It’s undisputed that this charging practice, applied over the course of several Republican and Democratic administrations in recent decades, contributed to the reduction of violent crime by half between 1991 and 2014." (13)
"The Obama administration’s “Smart on Crime” initiative – touted by former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates in a recent oped in the Washington Post titled “Making America scared again won’t make us safer” – undermined those hard-fought gains in public safety, and ushered in significant increases in violent crime. In 2015, violent crime rose 5.6 percent—the greatest increase since 1991—and included a shocking 10.8 percent increase in homicide rates." (13)
The rise in murder rates was 23%, from 2014-2016. In 2020, the US experienced the biggest rise in murder rate since the start of national record-keeping in 1960, according to data gathered by the F.B.I. for its annual report on crime - 29%.
REHABILITATION
" . . . individuals will desist from crime upon release from prison based on a variety of individual and community level factors not directly related to the availability and/or quality of prison programming." (10)
"Combining empirically based estimates for each of these three factors, a reasonable (and possibly overstated) calculation of the wrongful conviction (factually innocent) rate appears, tentatively, to be somewhere in the range of 0.016%–0.062%." (11)
POLICE
Four studies out this year (2016) show that if police are biased, it’s in favor of blacks.
"Officers’ use of lethal force following an arrest for a violent felony is more than twice the rate for white as for black arrestees . . .". " . . . officers re three times less likely to shoot unarmed black suspects than unarmed whites." (12)
Annually, 0.0017% of civilian interactions with police are fatal, or 99.998% non fatal, with 0.1% of police officers involved, or 99.9% not. (12).
Annually, 0.0017% of civilian interactions with police are fatal, or 99.998% non fatal, with 0.1% of police officers involved, or 99.9% not. (12).
SMART ON CRIME
" . . . Department of Justice policies since the 1980s directed federal prosecutors to charge the most serious readily provable offense, unless justice required otherwise. It’s undisputed that this charging practice, applied over the course of several Republican and Democratic administrations in recent decades, contributed to the reduction of violent crime by half between 1991 and 2014." (13)
"The Obama administration’s “Smart on Crime” initiative – touted by former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates in a recent oped in the Washington Post titled “Making America scared again won’t make us safer” – undermined those hard-fought gains in public safety, and ushered in significant increases in violent crime. In 2015, violent crime rose 5.6 percent—the greatest increase since 1991—and included a shocking 10.8 percent increase in homicide rates." (13)
The rise in murder rates was 23%, from 2014-2016. In 2020, the US experienced the biggest rise in murder rate since the start of national record-keeping in 1960, according to data gathered by the F.B.I. for its annual report on crime - 29%.
The previous record, one-year increase was a 12.7%, in 1968.
"The reduced charging and sentencing of thousands of drug traffickers and their early release from prison - all hallmarks of the Holder-Yates ("Smart on Crime") policies of the Obama years – have begun to leave their devastating mark downstream on the safety of communities across the nation. The surge in violent crime should not be surprising. Drug trafficking by its very nature, is a violent crime." (13)
IT WILL TAKE A DECADE OR MORE TO FIGURE OUT IF THE "STEPS" WE ARE TAKING, NOW, ARE SMART OR NOT SO SMART. WE CAN'T SAY WE WERE NOT AWARE OF RECIDIVISM RATES OR THE HUGE BENEFITS OF INCREASED INCARCERATION
REALITY: DRUG CASES
15% of prisoners had a drug offense as the most serious crime (14).
For non-trafficking drug offenses, 51% pled to a felony, 8% to a misdemeanor, 27% dismissed, 13% other disposition - non went to trial. (15)
Near 50%, maybe more, may be able to clean their record upon successful completion of their sentences, I suspect many, if not most, of those incarcerated, had multiple, prior infractions, given two chances or more, prior to incarceration.
It would be interesting to find out, how many of those drug cases pled down from more serious charges, inclusive of violent crimes and/or possession of a firearm and how many had prior arrests and convictions.
At least 95% of drug cases are resolved by a plea.
======
Can we be smarter on crime? Of course. Only time will tell if we are and none can say they were not aware of recidivism rates and the benefits of incarceration.
======
1) United States Crime Rates 1960-2017, using FBI data,
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
2) "The Misplaced Criticism of Clinton's Crime Bill", Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic, Apr 14, 2016,
"The reduced charging and sentencing of thousands of drug traffickers and their early release from prison - all hallmarks of the Holder-Yates ("Smart on Crime") policies of the Obama years – have begun to leave their devastating mark downstream on the safety of communities across the nation. The surge in violent crime should not be surprising. Drug trafficking by its very nature, is a violent crime." (13)
IT WILL TAKE A DECADE OR MORE TO FIGURE OUT IF THE "STEPS" WE ARE TAKING, NOW, ARE SMART OR NOT SO SMART. WE CAN'T SAY WE WERE NOT AWARE OF RECIDIVISM RATES OR THE HUGE BENEFITS OF INCREASED INCARCERATION
REALITY: DRUG CASES
15% of prisoners had a drug offense as the most serious crime (14).
For non-trafficking drug offenses, 51% pled to a felony, 8% to a misdemeanor, 27% dismissed, 13% other disposition - non went to trial. (15)
Near 50%, maybe more, may be able to clean their record upon successful completion of their sentences, I suspect many, if not most, of those incarcerated, had multiple, prior infractions, given two chances or more, prior to incarceration.
It would be interesting to find out, how many of those drug cases pled down from more serious charges, inclusive of violent crimes and/or possession of a firearm and how many had prior arrests and convictions.
At least 95% of drug cases are resolved by a plea.
======
Can we be smarter on crime? Of course. Only time will tell if we are and none can say they were not aware of recidivism rates and the benefits of incarceration.
======
1) United States Crime Rates 1960-2017, using FBI data,
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/crime-bill-legacy/478089
3)REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980.2008: SORTING OUT THE "HISPANIC EFFECT" IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS, NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES, AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS, See pages 208-209, FN 5, DARRELL STEFFENSMEIER, BEN FELDMEYER, CASEY T. HARRIS, JEFFERY T. ULMER, Criminology, Volume 49, Issue 1, Article first published online: 24 FEB 2011, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2010.00222.x/pdf
6) United States Crime Rates 1960-2017, using FBI data,
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
7) Update on Prisoner Recidivism: A 9-Year Follow-up Period (2005-2014), May 2018, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Special Report, NCJ 250975,
8) "Most violent and property crimes in the U.S. go unsolved", PewResearch, 3/1/2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/01/most-violent-and-property-crimes-in-the-u-s-go-unsolved/
9) "Prisons are a Bargain, by Any Measure", John J. DiIulio, Jr., Opinion, New York Times, 1/16/1996
11) Overstating America's Wrongful Conviction Rate? Reassessing the Conventional Wisdom About the Prevalence of Wrongful Convictions (2018), Cassell, Paul G., 60 Ariz. L. Rev. 815 (2018); University of Utah College of Law Research Paper No. 291. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3276185 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3276185
12) COMMENTARY: The Myth of the Racist Cop, Heather MacDonald, The Wall Street Journal 10/24/16,https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/myth-racist-cop-9391.html
13) "Law Enforcement leaders: How smart was Obama's 'Smart on Crime' initiative? Not very", Lawrence J. Leiser, president National Association of Assistant United States Attorneys. Nathan Catura, president, Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association. Bob Bushman, president National Narcotics Officers’ Associations’ Coalition. Al Regnery, chairman, Law Enforcement Action Network. Ron Hosko president, Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund. Harold Eavenson, President, National Sheriffs’ Association. Larry Langberg, President, Society of Former Special Agents of the FBI, Fox News Opinion, July 5, 2017
14) p 15, Offense Characteristics of State Prisoners, Prisoners in 2017 Jennifer Bronson, Ph.D., and E. Ann Carson, Ph.D., BJS Statisticians, April, 2019,https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p17.pdf
15) See Table 21, pg 24, Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties, 2009 - Statistical Tables | December 2013,https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fdluc09.pdf
3)REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980.2008: SORTING OUT THE "HISPANIC EFFECT" IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS, NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES, AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS, See pages 208-209, FN 5, DARRELL STEFFENSMEIER, BEN FELDMEYER, CASEY T. HARRIS, JEFFERY T. ULMER, Criminology, Volume 49, Issue 1, Article first published online: 24 FEB 2011, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2010.00222.x/pdf
4) RACE & THE DEATH PENALTY: A REBUTTAL TO THE RACISM CLAIMS,
http://prodpinnc.blogspot.com/2012/07/rebuttal-death-penalty-racism-claims.html
5) Trends in U.S. Corrections, U.S. State and Federal Prison Population, 1925-2017, Sentencing Project,
https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Trends-in-US-Corrections.pdf )
5) Trends in U.S. Corrections, U.S. State and Federal Prison Population, 1925-2017, Sentencing Project,
https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Trends-in-US-Corrections.pdf )
6) United States Crime Rates 1960-2017, using FBI data,
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
7) Update on Prisoner Recidivism: A 9-Year Follow-up Period (2005-2014), May 2018, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Special Report, NCJ 250975,
8) "Most violent and property crimes in the U.S. go unsolved", PewResearch, 3/1/2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/01/most-violent-and-property-crimes-in-the-u-s-go-unsolved/
9) "Prisons are a Bargain, by Any Measure", John J. DiIulio, Jr., Opinion, New York Times, 1/16/1996
10) On Behalf of the First Step Act Independent Review Committee, December 2019,
The Effectiveness of Prison Programming:A Review of the Research Literature Examining the Impact of Federal, State, and Local Inmate Programming on Post-Release Recidivism, DR. JAMES M. BYRNE, Professor and Associate Chair, School of Criminology and Justice Studies, University of Massachusetts at Lowell, https://firststepact-irc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/IRC-Effectiveness-of-Prison-Programming.pdf
11) Overstating America's Wrongful Conviction Rate? Reassessing the Conventional Wisdom About the Prevalence of Wrongful Convictions (2018), Cassell, Paul G., 60 Ariz. L. Rev. 815 (2018); University of Utah College of Law Research Paper No. 291. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3276185 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3276185
12) COMMENTARY: The Myth of the Racist Cop, Heather MacDonald, The Wall Street Journal 10/24/16,https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/myth-racist-cop-9391.html
13) "Law Enforcement leaders: How smart was Obama's 'Smart on Crime' initiative? Not very", Lawrence J. Leiser, president National Association of Assistant United States Attorneys. Nathan Catura, president, Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association. Bob Bushman, president National Narcotics Officers’ Associations’ Coalition. Al Regnery, chairman, Law Enforcement Action Network. Ron Hosko president, Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund. Harold Eavenson, President, National Sheriffs’ Association. Larry Langberg, President, Society of Former Special Agents of the FBI, Fox News Opinion, July 5, 2017
14) p 15, Offense Characteristics of State Prisoners, Prisoners in 2017 Jennifer Bronson, Ph.D., and E. Ann Carson, Ph.D., BJS Statisticians, April, 2019,https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p17.pdf
15) See Table 21, pg 24, Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties, 2009 - Statistical Tables | December 2013,https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fdluc09.pdf
Partial CV, Dudley Sharp
https://prodpinnc.blogspot.com/2021/08/partial-cv-dudley-sharp-independent.html
